Too Close to Call?

With the stunning election of Donald Trump as the 47th president of the United States, energy and shipping markets are now frantically calculating the impact on their business plans. For tanker shipping, the president-elect’s support for the US oil sector suggests good times lie ahead. However, in reality the picture is far more complex, with a number of bullish and bearish outcomes depending on the policy decisions made. 

One of Trump’s boldest claims during his campaign has been that he would end the war in Ukraine “in a day”. How he might do this, and what that might mean for tankers is highly uncertain; however, there are several possible and potentially extreme scenarios. Should Trump end all support for Ukraine, somehow force a peace deal and lift sanctions on Russia, much of the tonne mile gain seen over the past 2.5 years could be under threat. How Europe reacts would of course be key and contingency plans are being discussed. Yet, if the President-elect succeeds, over time it could see the return of Urals and Russian diesel to the European market. What ships might carry these cargoes is debatable, but a sizeable shift away from “dark fleet” tonnage would be likely.  

On the other extreme, Trump could pursue a “maximum pressure” campaign against Russia, cancelling the Oil Price Cap and implementing full energy sanctions on the country in order to pressure Russia into a peace deal. Under such a scenario, many buyers of Russian oil, notably India would be forced to purchase more US, West African and Middle Eastern crude, shifting demand from the “dark fleet” to the mainstream tanker market. Such an arrangement might only be possible with cooperation from Middle Eastern producers, who may see the removal of Russian oil from the market as a route to higher production from the core OPEC members.  

Iran is another country likely to come under “maximum pressure”, although Trump will probably need to pick a priority, with stricter sanctions on both Iran and Russia at the same time likely to have too much of an impact on oil prices, unless of course support can be mustered from the other OPEC States. Although it is debatable how effective tougher sanctions on Iran might be, any reduction in Iranian exports would likely need to be replaced with non-sanctioned crude, again shifting demand away from the dark fleet. Trumps approach to Iran will be critical for his broader Middle East strategy before even mentioning his stance towards the Israel-Hamas-Hezbollah-Houthis crisis. Outside the region, Venezuela is another country which may well fall into Trump’s sights, although it would appear to be a lesser priority for now. 

However, it is worth noting that oil prices fell following Trump‘s victory. Part of this was due to a stronger dollar, attitude towards climate change, but also his “drill baby, drill” motto. Yet, whilst the President-elect’s policies are likely to be supportive for the US hydrocarbon sector, he is unlikely to be able to meaningfully increase US production. His policies may also have global economic consequences, notably in China where a renewed trade war is possible. With Chinese oil demand already under pressure, tariffs could reduce demand further. It is worth noting that the majority of China’s oil demand growth is driven by LPG, ethane and naphtha; primarily for petrochemical production; a sector likely to be most impacted by a reduction in exports of consumer goods.  

Overall, there are too many twists and turns ahead, making it impossible to accurate predict the market impact. But for tankers, uncertainty creates volatility, and with that opportunity. So, strap in and enjoy the ride.  

US oil production under Biden (mbd)

Crude Oil

East

A positive end to the week for owners as charterers struggle to cover end month cargoes due to unexpected levels of resistance. However, this up-tick might be short lived as available tonnage remains high and next week could be quiet as the VLCC market decamps en masse to Dubai. December stems should come out towards the end of next week so owners will be hopeful rates can recover to levels witnessed earlier in the year after a disappointing Q3. Today we are calling  AG/China in the region of WS49 and 280 AG to USG fetches WS30 via cape.

Basrah/West activity has been very low throughout the week, and Suezmax vessels continue to ballast towards West Africa from the East. VLCCs remain very competitive so charterers will be looking to fix below 140 x WS62.5 via C/C. Rates to head East remain under pressure and a weak VLCC market is not helping the case. Market levels today are approximately 130 x WS100.

It has been a sombre week in the East with Aframax owners struggling to hold onto last done levels. AG/East ends the week soft with BITR printing 80 x WS155 – however, given the tonnage and negative sentiment lurking, charterers will be targeting to beat 80 x WS150. Lacklustre demand coupled with a weaker Suezmax and VLCC sector has been the main driver of the falling rates as the replenished list offers charterers fruitful options. With Bahri week ahead, we expect most of the activity to be off market with charterers firmly in the driving seat. In Asia, softness will roll over to next week as cargoes are being shown but not enough to keep up with supply.

West Africa

Charterers move cautiously to cover first decade stems with owners keen to bump levels upwards in reaction to more positive news in AG. However with USG remaining under pressure it is hard to justify a major upturn happening immediately so expect rates to remain at current levels off natural dates. We estimate that on today’s market, a 260 Waf/China run would pay around WS52 level.

Suezmax markets in West Africa are soft, with plentiful tonnage to supply the demand. For TD20 today, we estimate rates to be around WS85 but feel there will be some resistance at these levels. With minimal activity and a good level of competition, less being done is not off the table.

Mediterranean

TD6 remains stagnant but a good level of fixing this week has done some work to trim the list. With prompt ships in the East Med, expect last-done levels to be repeated (if not broken) at WS97.5. Libya/East runs have the usual suspects in play, and we don’t foresee any real difficulty in the coming week, rates will hover around a level of $4.4M.

Activity picked up this week, helping owners to trim excess availability and set a market floor.  It was towards the later stages of the week, however, that resistance against last done was seen, and there has been many an owner this week more focused on not missing their dates rather than pushing for marginal increment.  Finishing on a positive note with reports of possible replacements being sought, perhaps owners can soon expect to see some recovery.

US Gulf/Latin America

There was little improvement in freight rates from USG this week as demand in the region remained frustratingly slow and charterers faced limited opposition to cover at current levels . Tonnage availability remains on the high side as a plethora of Eastern ballasters arrive in the region hopeful of an end of year pick up. Brazil exports were equally stagnant this week as owners struggled to push rates upwards although there was some improvement towards the end of the week. Today we expect a USG/China cargo to pay in the region of $7.5 m and a Brazil / China run around the WS52 level.

Aframaxes continued the slide in the local and TA sectors. WS135 for USG/TA has been done with plenty of suitable ships remaining. More ballasters plus an already long list of prompt ships means a massive need for export business next week will be needed to stabilize this crash.

North Sea

Ballasters have been the chat of the north with very little tickling people’s fancy in the market. Bread and butter business has gone by under the radar this week with a few ships vanishing but plenty of choice on the near side.  Levels tick along in the mid WS120s with no change around the corner.

Crude Tanker Spot Rates (WS)

Clean Products

East

A little more activity seen on the LR1s and LR2s this week, but fundamentally not enough to see any change to the sentiment. TC1 has been tested over the week and with 75 x WS95 on subs we see it flat for now. West runs could see further softening, currently on subs at $3.5m, but for a straight west run where these exposed units could be worked, charterers should be aiming for a good discount. LR1s have had a more active week, however, the list is still long of the front end and with a lot of ships on subs for short haul cargoes, they will be back on the list next week! TC5 on subs at 55 x WS105 (+15yr) but given the lack of stems this should be repeatable for a younger unit. West needs a test, with the arb shut west runs are overpriced. There are plenty of units very keen for west and as such charterers (should they have the requirements to go West) will have $2.7m levels in their crosshairs.

Despite all hopes for a pre Bahri week rush, the MRs East of Suez have once again experienced a week devoid of positive sentiment and as a result rates have traded sideways. TC17 has been the most active once again with a mix of ballasters and prompter units clipped away, westbound continues to trade below $2m and east has seen very little volume. More of the same is expected next week as any turnaround remains to be seen.

Mediterranean

Tough week for Handy owners plying their trade here in the Mediterranean as we see rates come off around 45 points from where we started. We began the week with XMed at the 30 x WS145 mark but with fresh lists showing over 50 ships available over the next 10 days the writing was on the wall for this market. This combined with lacklustre enquiry over the first half of the week now sees rates steep to the 30 x WS100 mark. Today has seen more enquiries which feels like a pre-Bahri week rush but with the weekend likely to replenish the list further, expect pressure to continue next week. 

Finally, to the Med MR market where thanks to a slim list rates have been able to hold higher than their UKC counterpart. Med/TA has been at the 37 x WS95 mark for most of the week despite one achieving 2.5 points more and WAF in need of a fresh test at an increased premium due to the run being disliked by Owners. At the time of writing not a great deal is left to cover but expect a steady finish, nonetheless. 

UK Continent 

A touch more long-haul cargoes were seen this week in the UKC MR sector but we’re clutching at straws here with an oversupply of tonnage keeping any owners’ aspirations well and truly floored. XUKC runs coming from the handy sector have been the main source of employment opportunities, but all this does is keep tonnage local and until WAF and TA increase, we will be stuck in this situation. We see an increase in the premium for WAF being paid as owners look to increase their TCEs for the remainder of the year to something a little more palatable, but apart from that we continue to kick the can down the road. 

Good demand has been seen this week for XUKC ULSD as charterers have mainly covered their cargoes via MRs. Handy freight has had to readjust down to 30 x WS115-117.5 mark after MRs have been fixing at 37 x WS95 (now 37 x WS100). A healthy number of units were fixed short, which will only result in a good resupply towards the back end of next week. More of the same is expected here.

Clean Tanker Spot Rates (WS)

Dirty Products

Handy

It’s been a busy week across both markets as activity has chipped away consistently at the list. In the North, the week started with levels repeating at 30 x WS197.5 before firming to WS205 by the week’s end. The list is tight with a handful of options showing both WMed and naturally positioned. Should enquiry continue early next week we expect to see levels firm further. 

In the Med, a week of consistent and plentiful activity came at a much-needed time for owners as built-up tonnage has been cleared for the most part, leaving a feeling that levels have steadied at the 30 x WS160 mark. Owners will be hoping for more of the same, however, with the commencement of Bahri week, this remains to be seen. 

MR

MRs have seen little action at full-stem in the North as Handies have been the go-to class for charterers, however, the list is now very tight until early third decade when units basis WMed would begin to arrive leaving some forward planning required for charterers. In the Med levels have found their new benchmark of 45 x WS115 this week which owners will be hoping is now its floor. This could only be a momentary reprieve as more tonnage is expected to open early next week.

Panamax

Tonnage is expected to arrive on the continent early mid third decade, should enquiry surface we expect levels to remain around the 55 x WS130 mark as this benchmark has been repeated under similar conditions. Over in the USG, a general lack of activity across local and wider markets has left levels slowly trending down. As more options become available to charters, an injection of pace is needed if this is to be rectified.

Dirty Product Tanker Spot Rates (WS)

Rates & Bunkers

Clean and Dirty Tanker Spot Market Developments – Spot WS and $/day TCE (a)

wk on wk changeNov 7thOct 31stLast Month*FFA Q4
TD3C VLCC AG-China WS-647535854
TD3C VLCC AG-China TCE $/day-7,50023,50031,00038,50025,750
TD20 Suezmax WAF-UKC WS-10859510389
TD20 Suezmax WAF-UKC TCE $/day-5,75030,50036,25042,00028,750
TD25 Aframax USG-UKC WS-26134160220156
TD25 Aframax USG-UKC TCE $/day-9,50028,75038,25061,00033,500
TC1 LR2 AG-Japan WS-996105120 
TC1 LR2 AG-Japan TCE $/day-3,25014,75018,00024,500
TC18 MR USG-Brazil WS-5217222236214
TC18 MR USG-Brazil TCE $/day-1,75028,25030,00032,75024,750
TC5 LR1 AG-Japan WS-17105122147123
TC5 LR1 AG-Japan TCE $/day-4,50010,25014,75022,00012,500
TC7 MR Singapore-EC Aus WS-11158169187187
TC7 MR Singapore-EC Aus TCE $/day-2,00013,50015,50019,25015,500

(a) based on round voyage economics at ‘market’ speed, eco, non-scrubber basis

Bunker Prices ($/tonne)

wk on wk changeNov 7thOct 31stLast Month*
Rotterdam VLSFO  -3518521511
Fujairah VLSFO  +14577563546
Singapore VLSFO  +1586585560
Rotterdam LSMGO  +13666653623

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