Liberation Day

On Wednesday the 2nd of April, the much-anticipated Liberation Day came to pass. US President Donald Trump made true his threats and passed a 10% tariff on all imports from all trading partners from the 5th of April. Additionally, reciprocal tariffs coming into force on the 9th of April will be applied to specific trading partners designed to match tariffs those trading partners impose on US imports. For example, Trump announced a 20% fee on the European Union, 24% on Japan, 27% on India, and 34% on China. All these tariffs are on top of already existing tariffs implemented by the current administration. Crucially, the White House clarified that crude oil and refined products will not be subject to the additional 10% tariffs. Notable for tanker markets is also that tariffs on Canada and Mexico will continue as they are, with both Canadian and Mexican oil and products trading into the US tariff free, so little rerouting is expected to occur here yet. As with all announced tariffs, this may be subject to change.

With oil and refined products exempt, the immediate consequences for tanker markets are unclear. We saw a prompt reaction in oil prices as markets priced in reduced demand as well as OPEC+ announcing their plan to accelerate production increase in May. In the short term, price sensitive buyers or those looking to build reserves, such as China, may be incentivized to take advantage of cheaper oil. In the medium and long term, fears of muted economic growth and oil demand may be realised.

Despite being exempted by the US, trading partners may respond with tariffs of their own that do target oil and refined products. The US imported 3.3 mbd of seaborne crude and DPP in 2024, of which the majority came from countries in Latin America and the Middle East. The US exported nearly 4.2 mbd of crude and DPP in 2024, of which 1.9 mbd (46%) went to Europe and the Med, and a further 1.3 mbd (32%) went to East and Far East Asia, which may become subject to retaliatory tariffs. However, many of these countries, especially in Europe, have few alternative sources of supply, though with OPEC+ accelerating supply hikes this may change sooner than expected. In terms of the CPP trade, the US imported 900 kbd from a diverse range of sources and exported 1.9 mbd, of which 74% was to Latin America.

Trading partners have promised strong responses, with China moving quickly to impose a 34% tariff on all US effective from April the 10th, including on oil and products. Chinese imports of US crude were limited in 2024, amounting to just 240 kbd. Overall, tanker markets have so far been spared most of the direct consequences of tariffs, and indirect consequences will be harder to assess. It is possible that further trade partners target oil and product imports from the US with their own tariffs, though likely only if alternative sources of supply are readily available.

US Crude and DPP exports (kbd)

Crude Oil

East

The week began on a positive footing for VLCCs as charterers ramped up their shipments to cover remaining second decade stems. However, the momentum started to fade as the week progressed with a notable decline in reported fixtures and fresh enquiry. The overall sentiment amongst operators turned cautious as charterers were observed taking a wait and see approach leading to further downward pressure on rates. The outlook for next week remains uncertain but owners will be hoping for increased activity with last decade cargoes to be covered, but market players will be closely monitoring geopolitical developments and OPEC+ production decisions that could influence market dynamics. Today we are calling AG/China WS57 and AG/USG WS30.5.

In Suezmax markets, Basrah/West remains flat around 140 x WS57.5 via C/C. The list is a car park, and some have given up hope entirely and decided to ballast to West Africa. Rates to head East remain stable with very little excitement, with an extensive list charterers are likely to push for 130 x WS105.

In Aframax markets, given the numerous national holidays in the Eastern region, its little surprise to see a slower paced market with less inquiry from the AG. That said, there wasn’t quite enough time for tonnage to replenish, so rates end the week in a steady position. Aframax AG/East levels finish the week at 80 x WS50 level and demurrage at around 42.5-45k. Further East, rates cooled off at the close of a short week with indices reflecting the same as the TD14 prints lower at 80 x WS133. Outstanding cargoes may not be enough to hold or lift rates moving into next week as the tonnage list favours the charterers for now. however, owners are expecting more stems to be released for the mid-month fixing window. Sentiment has now shifted from being steady to flat and if demand continue to be tepid, expect rates to soften further.

West Africa

The VLCC WAF market is currently facing some challenges. With minimal activity and rates under pressure, it’s clear that the market is in a bit of a lull. The contrasting situation in the USG, where activity is stronger and position list is tightening, highlights the regional disparities in the VLCC market. The anticipation of a fresh test is crucial as it could help stabilize rates. However, charterers seem to be optimistic about their ability to negotiate better rates for routes to the Far East. It will be important to monitor how these factors evolve and whether there are any shifts in demand or supply that could affect the market. We are calling WAF/East in the region of WS59.5 today. 

Suezmax markets in West Africa have a firmer feel, but there is still some tonnage to be cleared out before owners start to gain any real traction. With some prompt replacements to help push up TD20 today, we estimate rates to be around WS97.5.

Mediterranean

For Suezmaxes in the Med, TD6 remains steady and last-done levels continue to be repeated, after the controversy in CPC this week it does seem that things are going back to normal. Expect last-done levels to be repeated at W130. For Libya/Ningbo rates today are around $5.7M.

The current Aframax market continues to shift unpredictably, more like a rollercoaster than a steady climb. Rather than relying on seasonal patterns or long-term forecasting, the most effective approach has been to stay focused on immediate opportunities and adapt quickly. Major external factors—such as the CPC pipeline’s temporary shutdown and rapid return—have added to the volatility, reshaping dynamics in real time. This week, we saw Suezmaxes stepping into Aframax territory, driving XMed rates down from recent highs of WS200 levels down to WS182.5 and then finally to WS165. Even so, genuine firm Aframax availability in the Mediterranean remains relatively balanced, with owners starting to hold firm despite what rates might imply. Adding to the complexity, adjacent markets are showing strength. The North Sea and U.S. both recorded gains, and with vessels ballasting out of Europe, the regional supply picture is tightening. For charterers, this isn’t the time to relax—especially given the rest of the Libyan export program.

US Gulf/Latin America

The USG export market has showed some positive signs this week, even if the rate gains aren’t as strong as anticipated. The slight downward trend for early May laycan cargoes might be concerning, but the firm conditions for TA voyages suggests a tight supply of vessels, which could help support rates in that area. Activity levels in Brazil export were slightly down from previous weeks and rates began to soften as the week wore on with downward pressure coming from lack of demand in WAF and a softer sentiment coming from the East. Today we are calling USG/China $8.65m and Brazil/China WS58.5.

North Sea

A bit more pom and circumstance in the North Sea this week with action adding some spice to an otherwise unappetising market. Levels are now trading at WS137.5 with some positivity going into next week with its neighbour, for once, perhaps not looking quite as perky, in the near term at least.

Crude Tanker Spot Rates (WS)

Clean Products

East

Slow week as expected with multiple public holidays. The LR2’s seemed to have weathered the calm period slightly better as UKC holds flat at $4.0m levels and TC1 sits in the 75 x WS145-150 bracket. However, the LR1s have seen more of a negative correction as the lack of activities and pressure building on the list saw headline rates slide. UKC adjusted to $3.0m ex AG and TC5 also in the WS145-150 bracket. Next week as we see more third decade stems enter the market it will be a good tester of where we sit and whether there is a disparity between TC1 and TC5.

Starting the week with public holidays in the Middle East served to drive sentiment further into charterer’s favour as a lack of activity saw tonnage lists built and as a result mid-week activity saw fresh tests erode last done. Despite a rush of cargoes seeing the top of the list on subs this activity has not stemmed the drop in rates and we close the week with TC17 on subs at WS197.5 and East and West runs now due a fresh test.

UK Continent

Very much a week of two halves, for most of the week we have seen a gentle slide in rates down to lows of 37 x WS150 TA on an ex d/d lc base oil ship. Cargo flow has been generally slow until Friday where some post tariff announcement stems hit the market. With the list still lacking depth owners will be keen to hold off as much as possible and if a few more stems land in the 10-15 window, then there is a chance rates will edge back up a little bit. The short haul activity has been limited this week on the MRs but currently trades at the usual +10 premium. 

Very limited enquiry this week which has seen rates edge down, this combined with the Med rates also tumbling there has not been any energy to get South either so all in all a rather lacklustre week on the Handies cross UKC.  Rates currently sit at 30 x WS150 and there is expectation next week should be busier. 

Med 

With an inherent tightness Med MR rates have fared better than the North, tonnage from WAF has been turning into the Med at Gib due to better earnings so that has largely been the feedstock of tonnage. Rates wise 37 x WS175 seems to be the going rate and this has largely traded down mainly due to the tumbling rates in the North. The question will be now is if this premium maintains it is likely to draw in the bulk of the ballast units which will constrain the north of tonnage but could marginalise the diff in the Med. Rates on the UKC will be a driving factor here.

A slippery week for Handies in the Med, with rates tumbling nearly 80 points since Monday amid a quiet market and a growing tonnage list. The drop has spurred charterers into quoting though as we see near on 15 ships on subs now come Friday for XMed and a small bounce back to the 30 x WS165. While this hints at possible resistance, whether these vessels get their subs will be key to determining if this marks a floor or just a pause in the slide. 

Clean Tanker Spot Rates (WS)

Dirty Products

Handy

Strong week in the North as a constant flow of enquiry enabled owners to keep rates heading northward. The tight position list remained stubborn throughout and further increment on rates seem likely heading into next week.

A stalling start to the week in the Med saw tonnage availability quickly increase. Combined with a lack of enquiry it was only a matter of time before the market was tested. WS220 on subs on Friday will likely be further tested early next week as a few more ships are expected to firm over the weekend.

MR

A distinct lack of naturally placed units witnessed the market trade on a case-by-case basis. Charterers were forced to look ahead of the natural fixing window with surrounding regions closely monitored. West Med appeared to be where the bulk of vessels lie but owners maintained a bullish stance for the duration of this week.

A lack of full stem enquiry allowed upcoming units to creep further up the position list particularly in the East and central parts of the region. Owners’ ideas have softened as the week progressed as we await an inevitable correction.

Panamax

Positions remained relatively untouched this week as availability was in good supply. Aframax market will likely firm next week so may see some voyages for local runs potentially trickle down but for now opportunity remains somewhat scarce.

Dirty Product Tanker Spot Rates (WS)

Rates & Bunkers

Clean and Dirty Tanker Spot Market Developments – Spot WS and $/day TCE (a)

wk on wk changeApr 3rdMar 27thLast Month*FFA Q2
TD3C VLCC AG-China WS-257595759
TD3C VLCC AG-China TCE $/day-2,75038,00040,75039,25034,750
TD20 Suezmax WAF-UKC WS-8951038883
TD20 Suezmax WAF-UKC TCE $/day-6,25037,25043,50033,75027,250
TD25 Aframax USG-UKC WS3185183144144
TD25 Aframax USG-UKC TCE $/day048,75048,75034,00028,500
TC1 LR2 AG-Japan WS-1152153130 
TC1 LR2 AG-Japan TCE $/day-1,00036,25037,25030,000
TC18 MR USG-Brazil WS-3199201138175
TC18 MR USG-Brazil TCE $/day-25025,00025,25013,00018,250
TC5 LR1 AG-Japan WS-3151154135135
TC5 LR1 AG-Japan TCE $/day-1,25024,00025,25020,50017,500
TC7 MR Singapore-EC Aus WS-12182194199180
TC7 MR Singapore-EC Aus TCE $/day-2,25019,25021,50022,75018,000

(a) based on round voyage economics at ‘market’ speed, eco, non-scrubber basis

Bunker Prices ($/tonne)

wk on wk changeApr 3rdMar 27thLast Month*
Rotterdam VLSFO  +0490490491
Fujairah VLSFO  +12524512500
Singapore VLSFO  +4527523500
Rotterdam LSMGO  -16640656623

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